Cycling Race Predictor

Predict your finish time based on FTP, weight, terrain, and equipment. Get power targets and pacing strategy.

Race Setup

Predicted Results

Calculate to see predicted finish time and pacing strategy.

Interpretation

  • Predictions assume steady-state pacing at duration-appropriate intensity.
  • Real results vary with wind, drafting, course profile, and fatigue management.
  • The moderate estimate is most realistic — aggressive times require perfect conditions.

What to Do Next

  • Use the Fueling Calculator to plan nutrition for the predicted duration.
  • Practice your target power on training rides to build pacing discipline.
  • Use the CdA Calculator to estimate how position improvements change your time.

Methodology

Version v1.0
Updated 2026-06-20
Owner Cycling Regimen Editorial

  • Duration-specific IF

    Sustainable intensity decreases with event duration (Coggan IF targets).

  • Physics model

    Speed from power balance: aero drag + rolling resistance + climbing vs applied power.

  • Terrain adjustment

    Power requirements increase with gradient and elevation gain.

About Our Calculation Approach

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is a cycling race time predictor?

Under controlled conditions (flat time trial, no wind), predictions can be within 2-5% of actual time. For road races with variable terrain, drafting, and tactics, accuracy decreases — treat predictions as training targets rather than guarantees.

What is IF and how does it affect race prediction?

IF (Intensity Factor) is the ratio of your race power to your FTP. It decreases with race duration: you cannot hold FTP for more than ~60 minutes. For a 3-hour event, sustainable IF is approximately 0.80-0.85.

Does weight matter more for climbing or flat races?

Weight has a much larger impact on climbing performance (W/kg determines climbing speed). On flat terrain, aerodynamics dominates and weight has a smaller effect because rolling resistance increases are partially offset by momentum benefits.

Disclaimer: This calculator provides estimates based on published exercise science models. Results are not medical advice. Individual physiology, health status, and environmental conditions affect real-world outcomes. Consult a qualified healthcare provider or certified coach before making training decisions based on these outputs.